With the ballots finally certified by the Election Commission, the King and the parties can now formally begin talks on the formation of the next government.
As reported by ETT, the parties have already been engaged in discussions with each other, with the ModRads support apparently courted by both the FreeDems and the RUMP. However the King has publicly stated that he would not engage in formal talks with the party leaders until the certification of the ballots has been completed.
Under the Organic Law the King must, in the absence of a single-party majority in the Cosa, engage in talks with the “objective of finding a PM who can be sustained in subsequent Votes of Confidence by a majority of seats in the Cosâ”. As no obvious parliamentary majority emerged from the 49th Cosa election, there is no clear precedent for how the King would judge the viability of a Seneschal candidate.
One uncertainty is if competing possibilities are presented, will the King seek to actively persuade the non-aligned parties to at least tolerate one of the possible alternatives, and if so how would this be received by party leaders? Would the King accept a looser pact, perhaps even limited in time, or would he instead allow new elections, if agreement cannot be reached?
What is clear is that any new majority in the Cosa will depend on at least two parties, whether in formal coalition or linked in some sort of confidence agreement. As the King will presumably want some concrete evidence of its viability, this will probably take the form of a written pact.
The possibilities, either as full coalition or as a “Cabinet of Talents” style agreement:
Pro: Ideologically compatible; slim but clear majority with potential extra support from Reps and Progs”
Con: Serious divergence on coalition issue; residual bitterness from the collapse of last govt may be insurmountable.
Pro: Large majority; no barriers to coalition; would include the fastest growing party in the Cosa (the TNC).
Con: RUMP a minority in their own coalition; ideological (and personal) differences; vulnerable to FreeDem attack as an “alliance of losers”.
FreeDem-RUMP: Grand Coalition
Pro: Large majority; could neutralise the most virulent personal conflict in Talossan politics (Schiva-Davinescu); deep bench of ministerial talent to “get things done”; convergence on the “Cabinet of Talents” concept; as both parties are roughly equal in size, a “marriage of equals”.
Con: the most virulent personal conflict in Talossan politics (Schiva-Davinescu); severe ideological differences on the monarchy; the near tie in seats could lead to Cosa deadlock.
ModRad-TNC-Prog, with outside support: Centrist
Pro: ideologically coherent, “centrist” so could try to win external support from both ends of the spectrum; “third force” opposed to FreeDem-RUMP dyarchy.
Con: Personnel issues; far from a majority on its own, so vulnerable to collapse.