[UPDATE: The vote percentages below were slightly off in the first version of this post due to an unsaved revision.]
According to the latest figures from the Chancery, Talossa has a total population of 274 citizens, of whom 243 are “active” (i.e., those who have reached the age of majority and who have fulfilled the minimum obligation of regularly voting in national elections). While predictions are hazardous, we do know that in the 48th Cosa election there was a 58% voter turnout nationally, so a 50% turnout is probably a safe assumption.
This gives us a “probable” electorate of 121 voters. And since the vast majority of these electors are not regularly active on Wittenberg, it is anybody’s guess how they will react to the particularly unsettled political conditions the Kingdom has experienced since last July. The political parties do however have a means by which they can reduce this uncertainty: their party members.
Based solely on the publicly announced candidate lists of the FreeDems, ModRads and TNC, the publicly disclosed membership of the RUMP, as well as Senators who are known party members, the political parties can (probably) count on the votes of 33 party candidates or known supporters, or about 27% of this likely electorate. There may of course be party members or sympathisers who are not officially candidates, but participation in a party’s election campaign is likely to be a reliable indicator of ballot box loyalty.
The influence of this “captive” vote, which would translate into a total of 54 seats in the 200-seat Cosa, would of course be proportionality greater the lower the turnout. Maximising this loyal vote is also crucial in the “first past the post” race to be largest party. The FreeDems have publicly declared their ambition to overtake the RUMP, and thus be in pole position in what will no doubt be a drawn out government formation process.
We can also assume that many of these party members will have personal ties with less active or politically committed Talossans and so would help get out the party’s message beyond the confines of the Wittenberg audience.
Based on an assumed 50% turnout, ETT estimates the impact of this “core” vote as follows:
ModRads – 7 votes
The recently announced Cosa candidate list of the MRPT contained 5 names, including outgoing Senator Epic da Lhiun. Adding the party’s other serving Senators, party leader Lüc da Schir and Sevastáin Pinátsch, this gives us a probable minimum of 7 votes, or about 6% of the likely electorate. This would translate into a minimum of 12 seats.
FreeDems – 10 votes
The FreeDems have announced a 10-candidate Cosa list, including (currently unopposed) Senate candidates C. Carlüs Xheraltescù and Munditenens Tresplet. This gives us a probable minimum of 10 votes, or 8% of the likely electorate. This would translate into a minimum of 16 seats.
TNC – 3 votes
The TNC has announced a three-member candidate list. Party leader Breneir Itravilatx also claims committed but discreet support from another two voters, who do not wish to be publicly identified with the party, but this cannot be confirmed. Thus this gives us a probable minimum of 3 votes, or 2% of the likely electorate. This would translate into a minimum of 4 seats.
The RUMP – 13 votes
The RUMP does not publish an official candidate list as such, but its electoral advertising in Berich’t Talossan claims 16 members in “Our Team”. However 3 of those named (Canun, Preston and Dun) do not appear to have voted in the 48th Cosa election, so I will discount them from this estimate. This gives us a probable minimum of 13 votes, or 11% of the likely electorate. This would translate into a minimum of 22 seats.